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China Telecom's entry into China's wireless market will bring down China Mobile's EBITDA margin significantly over the next five years

Source: Research and Markets. Mobile Operator Forecast on China provides over 65 operational and financial metrics for China's wireless market and is one of the best forecasts in the industry. We provide six-year forecasts at the operator level going out to 2013. We also provide quarterly historical and forecast data starting in 1Q2003 and ending in 4Q2013. Operators covered for China include: China Mobile, China Unicom, and China Telecom. Our Mobile Operator Forecasts are updated quarterly and are available for one-time delivery or through regular updates. Global Mobile Operator Forecast covers up to 65 operational metrics of 200+ mobile operators in 50+ countries, making up 80% of the world's population. Our forecasts are based on our proprietary, country-specific forecasting models. These models deploy multiple regression analysis and cross-impact matrices that estimate relationships between subscriber data, technology use and deployment data, overall economic and demographic changes expected in a particular country; and relate these to company operational and financial metrics. Executive Summary Double-digit subscriber growth continues in China's mobile operator space +17.2% industry-average subscriber growth in 4Q.2008 ARPU levels in China continue declining -6.4% operator-wide average ARPU growth in 4Q.2008 Minutes of Use per Subscriber continues to grow for China Mobile +5.6% industry average MOU/Sub growth in 4Q 2008 EBITDA growth is slowing down in China +2.9% industry average EBITDA growth in 4Q.2008 So what is IEMR's Forecast? Total wireless subscribers in China to reach 1.13 billion in 2013 - We forecast that total subscribers in China will increase from 641.2 million in 2008 to 1.136 billion subscribers in 2013. - Our model predicts that the largest operator, China Mobile, will have 811.6 million subscribers in 2013. China Telecom's market share will continue increasing over the next five years - We expect that China Telecom's subscriber market share will increase from 4.4% in 2008 to 9.8% in 2013. - On the other hand, China Unicom, which sold part of its operations to China Telecom in 2008, will see its subscriber market share fall from 20.8% in 2008 to 16.8% in 2013. - We forecast that China Mobile's market share will remain at approximately 71.4% over the next several years. ARPU levels will continue to fall from 2009 to 2013 - Our model predicts that ARPU declines in China will continue. We are projecting that China Mobile will see its ARPU decrease from RMB 83.00 in 2008 to RMB 55.10 in 2013. - The ARPU levels at China Unicom and China Telecom will be even lower. We forecast that the ARPU levels at China Unicom and China Telecom will be at RMB 35.04 per month and RMB 40.60 per month respectively in 2013. We are forecasting continuing declines in EBITDA margins over the 2009-2013 period - We forecast that the industry average EBITDA margin (calculated as EBITDA/reported revenue) will deteriorate from 48.6% in 2008 to 31.7% in 2013. - According to our forecasting model, China Mobile's EBITDA margin will fall from 49.5% to 34.5% while that of China Unicom will fall from 49.6% to 41.1% over the forecast period, 2009 - 2013. - We note that these forecasts reflect a significant change in the competitive environment due to China Telecom's entry into the market. In the previous quarter, we were predicting that China Mobile's EBITDA margin would be 45.8% in 2013 instead of the 34.5% forecasted in this report. For more information please click on: http://www.researchandmarkets.com/product/36bb90/2q09_china_mobile_operator_forecast_2008_2 Title Index: Companies Covered in this Country Mobile Operator Forecast China Mobile China Unicom China Telecom (For China Telecom, only "Subscriber" and "ARPU"-related data are available.)
 
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